Touch Points
Fed Developments:
- Interest rates remain unchanged.
- Economic activity is solid; job growth has slowed but remains strong.
- 2023 Forecasts: GDP at 2.1%, unemployment at 3.8%, PCE inflation at 3.3%, core PCE inflation at 3.7%. One more rate hike is anticipated this year.
- The Fed signaled one more cut over the next two meetings and now anticipates only two cuts in 2024, down from the previously projected four.
Powell's Insights:
- Emphasized recent positive labor reports and stated that Fed's restriction will only be evident in hindsight.
- Powell's optimistic stance contrasts with other indicators hinting at a potential recession.
Market Indicators:
- Campbell Harvey predicts a recession around Dec/Jan, highlighting historical patterns of the inverted yield curve.
- Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims show a robust economy, with claims dropping to 201,000 last week.
Housing Market:
- August saw a 0.7% decrease in Existing Home Sales.
- Inventory remains tight, while the median home price has risen to $407,100.
- Homes are selling quickly if priced right, and first-time buyers account for 29% of sales.
NAR Survey:
- 39% of prospective buyers await decreased rates, while 26% delay due to multiple offers on properties.
Below are my lowest interest rates priced at PAR using a 760 FICO score for 09/22/2023. This scenario has been shopped across 100+ wholesale lenders. Please reach out to me with any questions.
